Sky News business editor Michael Wilson
We aren’t quite at the tipping point yet. The jobless figures are showing the fourth monthly rise, which is a fair indication that the weaker economy is starting to hit the labour market. The May claimant count – those fit for work and actively seeking it – rose by 9000 and the three month measure of unemployed was up by 38,000 in the three months to April.
At the same time, there is an increase in the number of people in jobs – which is in part a reflection of how the population is increasing – and overall the employment market is in good shape.
And there’s so far no sign of rising prices forcing up wage demands, which is an ever present danger in these inflationary times.
But don’t forget that the official jobless figures are a snapshot of, in these harsh times, a time a long time ago. The economy is so volatile that things change very quickly. Witness the findings of the Bank of England’s latest summary – its ‘Agents’ survey of business conditions – of local employment intelligence. In it they say that ‘Labour demand softened noticeably, with a marked fall in employment intentions in the services sector.’ That, I’m sure will begin to tell its own story in the months to come.
Sir
Whilst the underlying figures point towards long term prosperity, the jobless count, if parted from political incentives, will provide other such emerging views, so any good news will only be good for the mind.
As with all such methodoligies to market, sometimes feeling ones pain is not the best pill, but does somehow assist prudent planning.
If [Shes Lost Control-Grace Control] whose fault is it?
Posted by: Khalid 11 Jun 2008 15:42:15
It would be a useful exercise to probe how much of the increase in people seeking work is down to the Government's drive to get people off incapacity benefit.
This is a reversal of Tony & Gordon's previous policy initiated in 1997 when they put out the signal to sign people onto incapacity benefit to make it look as if there policies were reducing the unemployment numbers.
"What goes around comes around".
Posted by: Robert, Scotland 11 Jun 2008 14:57:00